The impact of migration from Ukraine on trade and business opportunities

Poland has been experiencing an intense influx of immigrants from Ukraine for a decade, especially after the Russian invasion in 2022. These changes affected not only the labour market and public finances, but above all trade relations between Poland and Ukraine. According to a report by the Research and Analysis Department of Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK), the growing presence of Ukrainians in Poland has contributed to the dynamic development of trade and investment, making Poland an attractive destination for international entrepreneurs.

Poland is Ukraine’s key trading partner

Economic relations between Poland and Ukraine have significantly strengthened. In 2014, Polish exports to Ukraine amounted to EUR 3.1 billion, while in 2024 they increased to EUR 11.8 billion, which means an almost fourfold increase. Ukraine’s share in Polish exports increased from 1.9 percent to 3.7 percent, making it one of the most important markets for Polish goods.

The following export-related sectors have benefited the most:

• industrial machinery and equipment, which are crucial for the development of Ukrainian industry;
• construction materials and industrial chemicals that support the reconstruction of Ukraine;
• consumer goods and food products, driven by the demand of Ukrainian migrants (sending such products to their families in the homeland) and cross-border trade.

The increase in exports is also the result of the growing number of Ukrainian companies operating in Poland. Many Ukrainian businessmen maintain close trade relations with their homeland, which further facilitates the export of Polish products to the east.

Increase in imports and change in supply chains

Poland has also significantly increased imports from Ukraine – in 2014 it amounted to EUR 1.7 billion, and in 2024 it increased to EUR 4.4 billion. The main goods imported  are:

• base metals such as steel, aluminium and copper;
• mineral products, including coal and crude oil;
• agricultural products, including cereals and vegetable oils.

These changes are largely due to geopolitics. The restriction of trade with Russia and Belarus forced Polish companies to look for alternative suppliers, and Ukraine became a natural choice. As a result, Poland is playing an increasingly important role as a logistics centre for Ukrainian trade with the European Union.

Cash transfers and investment opportunities

In addition to trade, the scale of financial flows between Poland and Ukraine is also growing. A few years ago, Poland was a country to which remittances from emigrants flowed . Today, the situation has reversed – in 2024, 55 percent of all foreign financial transfers from Poland went to Ukraine. This is the result of the growing number of Ukrainians working in Poland who support their families in their homeland.

From the perspective of international investors, this means new opportunities:

• Development of logistics and transport, as Poland has become the main transit point for goods from and to Ukraine;
• New supply chains, as many Ukrainian companies are moving production to Poland in order to increase stability and access to the EU market;
• Construction and infrastructure, because the reconstruction of Ukraine will require huge supplies of materials and engineering services.

Challenges and limitations in trading

Despite the dynamic growth of Polish-Ukrainian trade, entrepreneurs must take into account certain barriers:

• infrastructure problems – border crossings are overloaded, causing delays in transport;
• EU regulations – as a member of the EU, Poland must adapt its trade policy to EU regulations, especially in the field of imports of agricultural products;
• geopolitical risk – the ongoing war and economic uncertainty affect the planning of long-term investments.

Poland as a key partner in the reconstruction of Ukraine

The long-term prospects for business in Poland are promising. The reconstruction of Ukraine after the war is expected to consume hundreds of billions of euros, and Poland, as its closest neighbour, will play a key role in this process. Polish companies are already involved in Ukrainian infrastructure projects, which opens up opportunities for foreign investors who would like to enter this market through Poland.

Forecasts indicate that the long-term impact of Ukrainian migration on the Polish economy may range from 1.7 percent to 2.9 percent of GDP growth in 2030-2050. This shows that Poland not only uses the potential of the presence of Ukrainians on its market, but is  also building a strong position as a business centre for international companies interested in cooperation with Ukraine.

Source: „Wpływ imigrantów z Ukrainy na polską gospodarkę”, Research and Analysis Department of BGK, March 2025 r.